This Saturdays see the start of the Betfair World Snooker Championship, and the return to snooker of Ronnie O'Sullivan after his self imposed sabbatical. It is also the start of another betting extravaganza with 17 continuous days of top quality snooker to look forward too.
This year sees the start of Betfair sponsoring the tournament, to market, sorry mark this, there is a Betfair Golden Cue on offer for the top break this year, as well as £10,000. Let's hope all runs well at the Crucible between 3pm and 5pm on the three Saturday's the tournament runs for (any regular Betfair users will know what that means).
Current world number 1, Mark Selby isn't even the bookies favourite, despite already winning the UK Championship and The Masters over the past 6 months. This is probably down to the fact that Selby has only managed to make one world final (losing 18-13 to John Higgins in 2007), so hasn't the track record when it comes to this longer format of the game.
On the whole, the bookies can't separate four men in the betting, Mark Selby, Ronnie O'Sullivan, Judd Trump and Neil Robertson.
O'Sullivan seems (on the whole) to be just about favourite at 5/1 to 6/1, quite surprising since he has been out of snooker for so long. 2010 champion Neil Robertson is second favourite at 11/2 to 6/1. Some bookies have them as joint favourites, but on the whole the majority have O'Sullivan priced up at half a point, or one point shorter than Robertson - with the exception of Ladbrokes who have Robertson as favourite.
Mark Selby then comes in third favourite at 11/2 to 13/2, but again (like with Robertson) - showing just how open this tournament looks on paper - some bookmakers have Selby as joint favourite with Ronnie.
Judd Trump makes up the top four quartet, he is 13/2 to 7/1, like Selby, Trump has one final appearance, losing 18-15 to John Higgins in 2011. The field is then all in double figures.
For each-way bets, all the main online bookmakers are paying out on half the odds for a top two finish, basically getting to the final (to state the bleeding obvious).
Some bookies are giving incentives to try and gain our custom. BetVictor will refund all losing outright winner bets (up to a maximum of £50.00) placed pre tournament if defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan wins the world title.
Ladbrokes are also offering money back as a free bet if O'Sullivan wins the title, up to a maximum of £25.00. As well as this they are also money back on losing match bets if your player loses in the deciding frame, again as a £25.00 free bet.
While Paddy Power are offering money back on losing outright match bets if a century is scored in the last frame of that particular match (bets have to be placed pre match and maximum refund is 100£/€).
Free bets can be used to bet for free on the snooker with. All three of the bookmakers listed above are offering free bets that can be used here, as well as new tournament sponsor, Betfair. Alternatively cash made from matched betting can be used, either way it is a bet for free.
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Friday 19 April 2013
Wednesday 17 April 2013
Latest Relegation Betting
Working on the assumption that Reading and QPR are already relegated (according to the online bookmakers' odds), Wigan's defeat to Manchester City on Wednesday leaves them as 11/8 favourites with the bookies to join them and be the third team to go down this season.
Wigan are now three points behind Aston Villa, Stoke City and Sunderland, but they do have a game in hand on all three. Of the three, only Villa (-24) have a worse goal difference than Wigan (-21), Stoke are -13 and Sunderland -8.
This basically means that Stoke and Sunderland have a one point advantage over Wigan and Villa, as level points would see Stoke and Sunderland safe on goal difference.
The fact that Wigan need to win their game in hand just to achieve parity, and that they need to finish on more points than either Stoke and Sunderland, is probably what is making them favourites for the drop.
Villa's form has picked up a bit lately, but with a young inexperienced side I wouldn't be laying them to go down at odds of 4.4, as they currently are on Betfair.
Stoke City are another side not used to fighting a relegation battle. There is a perception that they are perhaps too good to go down, but I wouldn't be buying into that as they are on such a poor run, they are under serious pressure and as I already said, they are not experienced when it comes to relegation fights.
Norwich are another team who should be looking over their shoulders. For a good few weeks now I've got the impression that Chris Hughton has been trying to draw his way too safety.
Sunderland will be revived by their recent 3-0 win over Newcastle, but they are still in the thick of the relegation fight. I suppose they have a manager with a good fight in him if nothing else.
Latest Relegation Betting
Reading - 1/150
QPR- 1/50
Wigan - 11/8
Aston Villa - 3/1
Stoke City - 9/2
Sunderland - 13/2
Norwich City - 9/1
The 9/1 on Norwich looks like it could be value. As I have already said they have been in a negative mode now for a few weeks. If all of a sudden they find themselves in the bottom three and in need of a win, could they be relied upon to get it?
It all depends on Wigan though. They are currently four points behind the Canaries, so have a bit of work to do to put real pressure on Chris Hughton's men.
Wigan are now three points behind Aston Villa, Stoke City and Sunderland, but they do have a game in hand on all three. Of the three, only Villa (-24) have a worse goal difference than Wigan (-21), Stoke are -13 and Sunderland -8.
This basically means that Stoke and Sunderland have a one point advantage over Wigan and Villa, as level points would see Stoke and Sunderland safe on goal difference.
The fact that Wigan need to win their game in hand just to achieve parity, and that they need to finish on more points than either Stoke and Sunderland, is probably what is making them favourites for the drop.
Villa's form has picked up a bit lately, but with a young inexperienced side I wouldn't be laying them to go down at odds of 4.4, as they currently are on Betfair.
Stoke City are another side not used to fighting a relegation battle. There is a perception that they are perhaps too good to go down, but I wouldn't be buying into that as they are on such a poor run, they are under serious pressure and as I already said, they are not experienced when it comes to relegation fights.
Norwich are another team who should be looking over their shoulders. For a good few weeks now I've got the impression that Chris Hughton has been trying to draw his way too safety.
Sunderland will be revived by their recent 3-0 win over Newcastle, but they are still in the thick of the relegation fight. I suppose they have a manager with a good fight in him if nothing else.
Latest Relegation Betting
Reading - 1/150
QPR- 1/50
Wigan - 11/8
Aston Villa - 3/1
Stoke City - 9/2
Sunderland - 13/2
Norwich City - 9/1
The 9/1 on Norwich looks like it could be value. As I have already said they have been in a negative mode now for a few weeks. If all of a sudden they find themselves in the bottom three and in need of a win, could they be relied upon to get it?
It all depends on Wigan though. They are currently four points behind the Canaries, so have a bit of work to do to put real pressure on Chris Hughton's men.
Wednesday 10 April 2013
US Masters Betting
It's (apparently) spring time, the clocks have gone forward, and the US Masters is upon us again. I always regard this tournament as the starting gun for a summer of magnificent sport, and on paper the Masters looks to have the potential to be a great appetizer for the next few months.
This will be the 77th Masters tournament, former Green Jacket winner Sandy Lyle is the lucky man who gets to hit the first ball this year. Of the 93 man field, the top 50 and those within 10 shots of the leader will make the cut this year, as opposed to 44 in the past.
The course has four par 5's and this year is 7,435 yards long. All this points to suiting the big hitters, but there is a lot more to winning the Masters than a big booming drive.
Statistics are important when picking a winner. For example, American players are the form players at the moment having dominated the US PGA tour over recent months. Martin Laird's win last week was the first non American winner on the US circuit this year.
Also only a small group of players have won on their first couple of visits to Augusta, Charl Schwartzel being the last, who won at his second attempt in 2011. Schwartzel is 28/1 to repeat that win this year.
2011 was also the year Rory McIlroy chucked away a four shot lead and capitulated on the back 9 of his final round. I know that he bounced back and won the 2011 US Open a few months later, but I believe the burden of pressure he will put on himself to right that wrong could hamper his chances.
It's being billed as Rory V Tiger, and quite sensibly Rory played that down yesterday by comparing his record to Tiger's and pointing out that their records are so different, that the two men just can't be compared.
I thought this was a smart ploy by McIlroy, the last thing he needed was to (innocently) say the wrong thing and have the media stoking things up between himself and Woods. It showed maturity from McIlroy, that he is thinking about his conduct and (presumably) his game, which is a good sign after his early season struggles.
In the betting, Tiger Woods is the favourite, mainly at 4/1 or 9/2, he is as short as 3/1 with one layer.
I believe the odds for a Woods' win is a tricky one for punters. On current form it looks a great bet, but on current 'major' form, he could never be backed at 4/1.
From a positive perspective, over the past few months Tiger has looked like the Tiger of old. He looks comfortable with himself again, like he has put all his troubles behind him and has finally moved on.
He is winning tournaments again, he is back at the top of the rankings and his putting has improved no end recently. There is also four par 5's on this course which will suit Woods, and he has won here 4 times previously. So 4/1 is a good price on him?
I'm not so sure, if he was 8 or 9/1, I'd say he's definitely worth a shot, but 4/1 looks too short to me. It's a tempter on current form, but I'd definitely be taking a cautious approach to Woods who hasn't won a major since 2008. Could that extra bit of pressure to win a major and complete his rehabilitation prove too much of a burden? Even for the great Tiger!
US Masters Betting (selected few, with best prices)
Tiger Woods 9/2
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Phil Mickelson 21/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Keegan Bradley 25/1
Adam Scott 25/1
Charl Schwartzel 28/1
Lee Westwood 28/1
Dustin Johnson 28/1
Louis Oosthuizen 28/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
This year most bookmakers are paying out for a top 5 finish (1/4 of the odds) in the each-way betting. Sportingbet, Paddy Power and 888Sport are all being more generous and paying out on 6 places, so it makes far more sense to bet with one of those if you are doing each-way bets.
Of those bookies, there is currently a Paddy Power Free Bet of £50.00 available to new customers who wish to open an account and take advantage of their 6 places in the each-way betting, the free bet can be used to bet for free on the Golf with as well.
This will be the 77th Masters tournament, former Green Jacket winner Sandy Lyle is the lucky man who gets to hit the first ball this year. Of the 93 man field, the top 50 and those within 10 shots of the leader will make the cut this year, as opposed to 44 in the past.
The course has four par 5's and this year is 7,435 yards long. All this points to suiting the big hitters, but there is a lot more to winning the Masters than a big booming drive.
Statistics are important when picking a winner. For example, American players are the form players at the moment having dominated the US PGA tour over recent months. Martin Laird's win last week was the first non American winner on the US circuit this year.
Also only a small group of players have won on their first couple of visits to Augusta, Charl Schwartzel being the last, who won at his second attempt in 2011. Schwartzel is 28/1 to repeat that win this year.
2011 was also the year Rory McIlroy chucked away a four shot lead and capitulated on the back 9 of his final round. I know that he bounced back and won the 2011 US Open a few months later, but I believe the burden of pressure he will put on himself to right that wrong could hamper his chances.
It's being billed as Rory V Tiger, and quite sensibly Rory played that down yesterday by comparing his record to Tiger's and pointing out that their records are so different, that the two men just can't be compared.
I thought this was a smart ploy by McIlroy, the last thing he needed was to (innocently) say the wrong thing and have the media stoking things up between himself and Woods. It showed maturity from McIlroy, that he is thinking about his conduct and (presumably) his game, which is a good sign after his early season struggles.
In the betting, Tiger Woods is the favourite, mainly at 4/1 or 9/2, he is as short as 3/1 with one layer.
I believe the odds for a Woods' win is a tricky one for punters. On current form it looks a great bet, but on current 'major' form, he could never be backed at 4/1.
From a positive perspective, over the past few months Tiger has looked like the Tiger of old. He looks comfortable with himself again, like he has put all his troubles behind him and has finally moved on.
He is winning tournaments again, he is back at the top of the rankings and his putting has improved no end recently. There is also four par 5's on this course which will suit Woods, and he has won here 4 times previously. So 4/1 is a good price on him?
I'm not so sure, if he was 8 or 9/1, I'd say he's definitely worth a shot, but 4/1 looks too short to me. It's a tempter on current form, but I'd definitely be taking a cautious approach to Woods who hasn't won a major since 2008. Could that extra bit of pressure to win a major and complete his rehabilitation prove too much of a burden? Even for the great Tiger!
US Masters Betting (selected few, with best prices)
Tiger Woods 9/2
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Phil Mickelson 21/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Keegan Bradley 25/1
Adam Scott 25/1
Charl Schwartzel 28/1
Lee Westwood 28/1
Dustin Johnson 28/1
Louis Oosthuizen 28/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
This year most bookmakers are paying out for a top 5 finish (1/4 of the odds) in the each-way betting. Sportingbet, Paddy Power and 888Sport are all being more generous and paying out on 6 places, so it makes far more sense to bet with one of those if you are doing each-way bets.
Of those bookies, there is currently a Paddy Power Free Bet of £50.00 available to new customers who wish to open an account and take advantage of their 6 places in the each-way betting, the free bet can be used to bet for free on the Golf with as well.
Sunday 7 April 2013
Next Manager To Leave Post Latest Betting
It came to no surprise to me tonight to see that Tony Pulis leads the way in the next manager to leave his post betting. He isn't favourite though, 'No Manager to leave before the end of the season' leads the betting and is odds on favourite with Skybet, at 4/7.
Tony Pulis comes in next at 9/4, then it is Harry Redknapp at 16/1, Paolo Di Canio 20/1, Rafa Benitez 20/1 and the rest at 50/1 and beyond.
Skybet are currently the only bookie offering odds on this market, and judging by the odds it looks like they believe it to be a two horse race.
I can only assume that they are looking at the situation with Stoke and thinking that the board might hit the panic button and do what Sunderland did, basically hope that a new manager can give them that short term lift and propel them too the win or two that will surely see them safe.
Working on that theory is there really any difference with Chris Hughton at Norwich? And he is 50/1. Roberto Mancini is also a 50/1 shot. If Manchester City lose heavily tomorrow night (in the Manchester derby) and then crash out of the FA Cup in the semi-finals, what chance he might go when their season is all but over?
Tony Pulis comes in next at 9/4, then it is Harry Redknapp at 16/1, Paolo Di Canio 20/1, Rafa Benitez 20/1 and the rest at 50/1 and beyond.
Skybet are currently the only bookie offering odds on this market, and judging by the odds it looks like they believe it to be a two horse race.
I can only assume that they are looking at the situation with Stoke and thinking that the board might hit the panic button and do what Sunderland did, basically hope that a new manager can give them that short term lift and propel them too the win or two that will surely see them safe.
Working on that theory is there really any difference with Chris Hughton at Norwich? And he is 50/1. Roberto Mancini is also a 50/1 shot. If Manchester City lose heavily tomorrow night (in the Manchester derby) and then crash out of the FA Cup in the semi-finals, what chance he might go when their season is all but over?
Saturday 6 April 2013
Betdaq 0% Commission on the Grand National
To open a Betdaq account and claim up to £200.00 in Free Bets, please click here,,,,
There may not be too much to shout about in the shape of Grand National Free Bets, but at least we can console ourselves with the fact that Betdaq are offering 0% commission on any winnings we may make on the big race.
This offer is open to both new and existing customers as well.
There seems to be a bit of a sustained marketing attempt from the purple betting exchange since it was bought by Ladbrokes earlier in the year.
Betdaq are now offering up to £200.00 in free bets (based on accumulating commission), they are offering new customers and reactivated accounts their first month commission free, and the first UK horse race every day is also commission free.
The terms and conditions of this offer are as follows...
There may not be too much to shout about in the shape of Grand National Free Bets, but at least we can console ourselves with the fact that Betdaq are offering 0% commission on any winnings we may make on the big race.
This offer is open to both new and existing customers as well.
There seems to be a bit of a sustained marketing attempt from the purple betting exchange since it was bought by Ladbrokes earlier in the year.
Betdaq are now offering up to £200.00 in free bets (based on accumulating commission), they are offering new customers and reactivated accounts their first month commission free, and the first UK horse race every day is also commission free.
The terms and conditions of this offer are as follows...
- To avail of 0% Commission on the 2013 Grand National at Aintree, members must place a bet on any day of race Grand National market offered on BETDAQ.
- Bets placed on ante-post markets do not qualify.
- Offer is not available to BETDAQ API, RDT or non retail customers.
- Members must have a fully activated and verified BETDAQ account.
- Offer applies to existing as well as new BETDAQ members.
- BETDAQ affiliates, consultants, employees are ineligible to use this promotion.
- BETDAQ reserves the right to terminate this promotion at any time.
- BETDAQ reserves the right to exclude any entrant from such promotions.
- BETDAQ reserves the right to amend these Terms and Conditions at any stage.
- General BETDAQ Terms and Conditions apply
Wednesday 3 April 2013
Latest Premier League Darts Betting
Week 9 of the Premier League darts road show comes from Brighton, and on the night being billed (or over hyped) as 'Judgement Night' two players from four will be relegated out of the competition, cutting the field from ten to eight.
Quite where two of Adrian Lewis, Simon Whitlock, Wes Newton or Gary Anderson will be relegated too is anybodies guess, as I'm not sure that Barry Hearn has started a darting version of the Championship yet. I get the feeling that along with 'Judgement Night,' being 'Relegated' sounds a touch more dramatic.
So which two players are most likely to get kicked out of the Premier League on Thursday? Not Adrian Lewis for me, way too much has to happen with the other matches, and that's only if Lewis loses against Barney. Lewis is also unbeaten in his last four PL matches now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull another performance out of the hat when/if he needs too.
Simon Whitlock is a man in trouble for me, for two reasons. First, I can't see him getting anything of van Gerwen. And second, I have a sneaky feeling Wes Newton could get something in his match against Andy Hamilton. Although I'm reluctant to ever write off Whitlock (it's like writing off the Germans for me), I just think he looks doomed. I am though, prepared to have egg all over my face if Whitlock does what I know he is well capable off.
As I have already stated, I can see Wes Newton getting something against Andy Hamilton. Newton was dead and buried last week against Gary Anderson and lived to survive another day. He also won the European Darts Trophy last weekend, so is now all of a sudden carrying some form. It's got that feel of one of those ridiculous great escapes about it for me.
As for Gary Anderson, he is done for. The same old problem is back for Anderson, and he threw away his Premier League participation last week for me, when he chucked away the match against Newton. Anderson has to win just to have a chance.
Don't get me wrong, he is capable of hammering James Wade on Thursday, but he is equally capable of getting hammered. On present form you would have to go with the latter of those two equations, personally I just wouldn't go near an Anderson match with a betting slip at the moment.
I think that Gary Anderson and Simon Whitlock will be the two to get Relegated on Judgement Night!. Or as I would describe it, get eliminated on week 9.
Week 9 fixtures and Premier League Darts Betting odds...
Gary Anderson 5/2 - Draw 4/1 - James Wade 10/11
Phil Taylor 8/15 - Draw 5/1 - Robert Thornton 4/1
Wes Newton 15/8 - Draw 7/2 - Andy Hamilton 6/5
Adrian Lewis 13/8 - Draw 15/4 - Raymond van Barneveld 11/10
Michael van Gerwen 8/15 - Draw 9/2 - Simon Whitlock 4/1
Looking at the matches from a darts betting perspective. And of the outsiders, I would have to think that Robert Thornton is a far better 4/1 shot, than Simon Whitlock is. Thornton can beat Taylor, who hasn't always been at his best in this competition this year for me.
At times Taylor has looked distracted and a bit shoddy, two descriptions I wouldn't normally use to describe Phil Taylor's darts. Michael van Gerwen has gone slightly off the boil a little bit lately as well, but I still think he will be too strong for Whitlock.
As I already said, I think Wes Newton can get something off Andy Hamilton. I wouldn't like to call Barney V Lewis, but at a push I would take Lewis, and I can't back Gary Anderson with anybodies money.
Maybe a small wager on a value roll up made up of a draw between Newton and Hamilton, and Lewis, Thornton and van Gerwen to win at odds of around 89/1. A long shot I know, but why not, it is a bet for free after all (with money made from matched betting).
Quite where two of Adrian Lewis, Simon Whitlock, Wes Newton or Gary Anderson will be relegated too is anybodies guess, as I'm not sure that Barry Hearn has started a darting version of the Championship yet. I get the feeling that along with 'Judgement Night,' being 'Relegated' sounds a touch more dramatic.
So which two players are most likely to get kicked out of the Premier League on Thursday? Not Adrian Lewis for me, way too much has to happen with the other matches, and that's only if Lewis loses against Barney. Lewis is also unbeaten in his last four PL matches now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull another performance out of the hat when/if he needs too.
Simon Whitlock is a man in trouble for me, for two reasons. First, I can't see him getting anything of van Gerwen. And second, I have a sneaky feeling Wes Newton could get something in his match against Andy Hamilton. Although I'm reluctant to ever write off Whitlock (it's like writing off the Germans for me), I just think he looks doomed. I am though, prepared to have egg all over my face if Whitlock does what I know he is well capable off.
As I have already stated, I can see Wes Newton getting something against Andy Hamilton. Newton was dead and buried last week against Gary Anderson and lived to survive another day. He also won the European Darts Trophy last weekend, so is now all of a sudden carrying some form. It's got that feel of one of those ridiculous great escapes about it for me.
As for Gary Anderson, he is done for. The same old problem is back for Anderson, and he threw away his Premier League participation last week for me, when he chucked away the match against Newton. Anderson has to win just to have a chance.
Don't get me wrong, he is capable of hammering James Wade on Thursday, but he is equally capable of getting hammered. On present form you would have to go with the latter of those two equations, personally I just wouldn't go near an Anderson match with a betting slip at the moment.
I think that Gary Anderson and Simon Whitlock will be the two to get Relegated on Judgement Night!. Or as I would describe it, get eliminated on week 9.
Week 9 fixtures and Premier League Darts Betting odds...
Gary Anderson 5/2 - Draw 4/1 - James Wade 10/11
Phil Taylor 8/15 - Draw 5/1 - Robert Thornton 4/1
Wes Newton 15/8 - Draw 7/2 - Andy Hamilton 6/5
Adrian Lewis 13/8 - Draw 15/4 - Raymond van Barneveld 11/10
Michael van Gerwen 8/15 - Draw 9/2 - Simon Whitlock 4/1
Looking at the matches from a darts betting perspective. And of the outsiders, I would have to think that Robert Thornton is a far better 4/1 shot, than Simon Whitlock is. Thornton can beat Taylor, who hasn't always been at his best in this competition this year for me.
At times Taylor has looked distracted and a bit shoddy, two descriptions I wouldn't normally use to describe Phil Taylor's darts. Michael van Gerwen has gone slightly off the boil a little bit lately as well, but I still think he will be too strong for Whitlock.
As I already said, I think Wes Newton can get something off Andy Hamilton. I wouldn't like to call Barney V Lewis, but at a push I would take Lewis, and I can't back Gary Anderson with anybodies money.
Maybe a small wager on a value roll up made up of a draw between Newton and Hamilton, and Lewis, Thornton and van Gerwen to win at odds of around 89/1. A long shot I know, but why not, it is a bet for free after all (with money made from matched betting).
Monday 1 April 2013
More Next Manager Betting
Martin O'Neill's sacking as Sunderland boss seen another next manager market come up on Betfair, and it disappeared nearly as soon as it had appeared with the immediate appointment of Paolo Di Canio.
Even though I had heard it reported that Di Canio was in Sunderland for talks, I still thought he was worth a lay at odds of 1.17, as I believed there was still plenty that could potentially go wrong.
I seen it as a relatively cheap and minimal risk lay. First, how accurate was the rumour of him being in Sunderland? And even if he was in Sunderland, I still wasn't convinced they would give him the job.
Added to that, I won a few quid on the recent next Reading manager's market, so I had a few pounds to invest/lose.
I believed it to be a bonkers decision to sack a manager of Martin O'Neill's stature and experience at this time of the season, and then give the managers job to a premier league novice, with limited managerial experience full stop.
I thought maybe Sunderland had a more experienced manager in mind, and that they maybe wanted to speak to Di Canio just to sound him out, in case their first choice didn't materialise.
A couple of hours after placing my lay I noticed on Twitter that Di Canio had been given the job, so I quickly got on to Betfair and managed to back him for the job at 1.07, and get nearly half my money back.
I then watched the price crash to 1.01 in a matter of seconds afterwards.
Even though I lost on this trade, it was a low risk bet that I believe I had plenty more to gain from, than lose. Obviously it's always disappointing to lose, but I'm not going to dwell on this and wonder if I could have done things differently.
These next manager markets can be dangerous and can be volatile, but if you are careful and bet tactically, you can make money out of them.
As soon as a next manager market comes live, I lay all candidates at odds on as soon as possible and then just leave it. Usually I will get two matched.
Gus Poyet traded odds on for the recent Reading job, what happened there just goes to show how many obstacles there can be in the way before an appointment is finally made. That's why I didn't mind laying Di Canio.
This appointment has surprised me though, I know that in the world of football betting nothing should surprise me by now, but even I would never have believed Sunderland would trust Di Canio with keeping them in the Premier League.
It looks like a short term, panic decision to me. Someone at the club appears to have thought 'let's try and give the team a boost or a kick up the backside, and hope it has an immediate impact.'
They appear to be banking on the hope that to bring in a new manager now will give them a temporary lift, the new manager bounce effect, and get Sunderland the points they need to make them safe. In short, bring in another year's TV money.
It may well work, Di Canio might keep them up, but O'Neill might have kept them up as well, we will never know now.
Even though I had heard it reported that Di Canio was in Sunderland for talks, I still thought he was worth a lay at odds of 1.17, as I believed there was still plenty that could potentially go wrong.
I seen it as a relatively cheap and minimal risk lay. First, how accurate was the rumour of him being in Sunderland? And even if he was in Sunderland, I still wasn't convinced they would give him the job.
Added to that, I won a few quid on the recent next Reading manager's market, so I had a few pounds to invest/lose.
I believed it to be a bonkers decision to sack a manager of Martin O'Neill's stature and experience at this time of the season, and then give the managers job to a premier league novice, with limited managerial experience full stop.
I thought maybe Sunderland had a more experienced manager in mind, and that they maybe wanted to speak to Di Canio just to sound him out, in case their first choice didn't materialise.
A couple of hours after placing my lay I noticed on Twitter that Di Canio had been given the job, so I quickly got on to Betfair and managed to back him for the job at 1.07, and get nearly half my money back.
I then watched the price crash to 1.01 in a matter of seconds afterwards.
Even though I lost on this trade, it was a low risk bet that I believe I had plenty more to gain from, than lose. Obviously it's always disappointing to lose, but I'm not going to dwell on this and wonder if I could have done things differently.
These next manager markets can be dangerous and can be volatile, but if you are careful and bet tactically, you can make money out of them.
As soon as a next manager market comes live, I lay all candidates at odds on as soon as possible and then just leave it. Usually I will get two matched.
Gus Poyet traded odds on for the recent Reading job, what happened there just goes to show how many obstacles there can be in the way before an appointment is finally made. That's why I didn't mind laying Di Canio.
This appointment has surprised me though, I know that in the world of football betting nothing should surprise me by now, but even I would never have believed Sunderland would trust Di Canio with keeping them in the Premier League.
It looks like a short term, panic decision to me. Someone at the club appears to have thought 'let's try and give the team a boost or a kick up the backside, and hope it has an immediate impact.'
They appear to be banking on the hope that to bring in a new manager now will give them a temporary lift, the new manager bounce effect, and get Sunderland the points they need to make them safe. In short, bring in another year's TV money.
It may well work, Di Canio might keep them up, but O'Neill might have kept them up as well, we will never know now.
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